Chapter 6

Multifamily

U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review 2026

5 Minute Read

Explore Local Market Outlooks

5 Minute Read

Explore Local Market Outlooks

Midyear Outlook

  • Job growth began to recover in H1 2026, leading us to maintain our projection of 1.4% average annual rent growth for the year.
  • Landlords are prioritizing occupancy over rent growth, using concessions to attract and retain tenants, and supporting their overall operating income on historically high renewal rates.
  • Performance remains sharply bifurcated: Coastal gateway, supply-constrained and Midwest markets (e.g., Seattle, the San Francisco Bay Area, Chicago and Boston) lead five-year rent growth forecasts, while Sun Belt markets face the twin dilemma of lingering supply and higher sensitivity to employment changes. Strong job growth will allow Sun Belt markets to normalize and catch up with the rest of the country on rent growth.

Figure 7: Employment & Multifamily Rent Growth

Note: National employment figures are compared with Multifamily Sum of Markets.
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Q1 2026.

Figure 8: Medium & Long-Run Rent Forecast

Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q1 2026 forecast, BLS.

Key Updates to Forecast

  • Our forecasts for rent growth and vacancy remain essentially unchanged at 1.4% and 4.9%, respectively. Stability in the forecast is backed by a vacancy rate of 4.8% and year-over-year rent growth of 0.2%.
  • The only meaningful revisions to our forecast were further out and at the margin: The long-run stabilized vacancy rate was nudged up by roughly 10 to 15 bps and the five-year rent CAGR was lowered to 2.8% from 2.9%, pointing to a slightly softer steady state (Figure 8).

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