Norway’s mainland GDP fell by 3.6% in 2020, but is forecasted to recover by 2.5% in 2021. First interest rate hike by Norges Bank expected in 2022, but monetary policy expected to remain reasonably accommodative at least through 2023-2024.
Recovery began in H2 2020 and is expected to continue through 2021, with a full return to pre-COVID norms around year-end.
Signs of a recovery are apparent, but the road is likely to be rocky. Occupiers will start to execute portfolio and workplace strategies to position themselves for more distributed working and greater agility.
Still susceptible to health management restrictions and structural change, but opportunities in groceries, grocery-anchored retail parks and shopping centres, and exceptional prime assets.
Fundamentally strong demand picture with ecommerce to the fore, supported by supply chain reconfiguration. Opportunities in land-constrained markets and repositioning/redevelopment plays.
The market will continue to be challenging through 2021 and the recovery uneven. Investment opportunities can arise for those with a long-term view and the right skill set, as the present situation could offer some unique opportunities with asymmetric risk/reward characteristics.
Defensive characteristics mean multifamily will expand as investors diversify and new entrants continue to emerge. Strong focus on operational efficiencies and incorporating flexible spaces into new developments.